May 2019 Update (as of May 14, 2019)
The market continues to soften in May, year-over-year. Even with rates down to the lowest levels we have seen in years, demand is clearly slowing. The National market is slowing, and while Eugene is outpacing the region, Eugene home sales are beginning to slide. Not PRICES, but count of home sales. Prices are expected to climb by 7.3% this year even as home sales remain flat or decline this year.
Rent vs. Buy in this Market
A $300,000 home sold in Jan 2019 can be expected to be valued at $321,900 by December. This represents a net asset growth of nearly $22,000 with a FIXED rent (mortgage) payment.
In contrast, Oregon just passed a rent control bill that caps rent growth at 7%. This led more than a few investors to flee the State, in some cases mid-transaction. Landlords are expected to increase rents to the maximum amount each year, to the tolerable market level, in order to avoid future risk to their capital investments. For 2019 this means that rents can be increased up to 10.3%.
In contrast, mortgage rate are FIXED and remain at a near all-time low, hovering at 4%.
The takeaway is this: Although all logic points to buying over renting, especially given the fixed nature of mortgage payments, and home asset growth, renters in this market continue to choose to rent.
And Now…Your May 2019 Eugene Real Estate Snapshot
Below are some highlights from various areas of Eugene, for homes up to $400k, and in some cases above.
Contact us for statistics about homes in other price ranges or areas. We can help you time your listing appropriately, or at least give you some insight into what’s happening RIGHT NOW in the market. Things can change quickly in certain areas.
We are seeing a FAR more balanced market than last year, through the last 30 days. In April the count of For Sale under $400k climbed 172% while demand remains about the same as last year. That is a huge jump and will favor buyers vs. last year. Sellers that think they can wait, and get maximum value should reconsider. The market will continue to slide towards Buyers, and this will force Buyers to be hesitant, pull offers mid-contract, etc. We are seeing a pick-up in pending and sold in the danebo real estate market for May, pointing to a delayed buying season compared with last year.
East Eugene looked stronger in April but May brought a glut of new inventory as closings the first two weeks of May declined 71% year-over-year.
Ferry Street Bridge
Now is an AMAZING time to list in the Ferry Street Bridge area. In April, Pendings jumped 107% year over year!
As you can see from the chart below, these numbers strongly favor sellers, even more-so than this time last year. Note also how the first two weeks of May continue that trend.
On possible reason: Single-level homes for Baby Boomers are in demand right now. If you are considering upsizing and live in the Ferry Street Bridge area, now is a great time to list with us.
For the North Gilham area, we chose to focus on ALL prices because many homes in North Gilham sell for well over $400k. April was weak compared with April of last year, but May is looking better so far, with a 300% increase in Pendings the first two weeks of May.
River Road is looking very similar to Danebo. It’s becoming a balanced market, still favoring Sellers but shifting slowly towards Buyers as home sellers who may have been on the fence last year, decide to list this year.
Santa Clara showed a lot of weakness in April, but that has shifted during May although like in Danebo and River Road, the demand is not keeping up with supply as we see the market cool.
We’re seeing a VERY slow start to the Southwest Eugene market for homes under $400k. Some of this may be due to the increasing price and demand in certain areas of Southwest such as the Friendly area. Note the 2nd chart showing demand for homes over $400k in Southwest Eugene. April was bonkers compared with last year, with inventory down and pendings WAY up. If you have a $400k+ home to sell in Southwest Eugene, now is a great time to do it.
Southwest for homes under $400k:
The same stats for homes over $400k: